Tuesday, 7 July 2020
For 15 years since 2005, I have been exposed to garlic oil for export, but I have not been interested in garlic and its related products due to personal preference for high-risk things. After experiencing the ups and downs of the aroma chemicals and EO for F&F industry from 2018 to 2019, I joined the research team of a consulting company in May 2020, hoping that the stones from other mountains can be used to make jade. From May 21 to May 26, we visited the main garlic producing areas in China for five and a half days, involving the main garlic producing areas in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan. We measured the yield of 33 samples on the spot. After the end of garlic agricultural sales, the consulting company will make a telephone call to confirm the actual output data.
Report conclusion: strictly control the purchase cost at X Yuan. cautious bearish,entry when achieve the expected bottom price months later
The report analyzes the market situation in 2020 from the following three aspects, and refers to the statistical data of the past few years:
1. Supply market: increased output
2. Demand market: actual demand (garlic processing enterprises, domestic wholesale market) and middlemen (garlic broker, storer)
3. Situation of farmers
Sorry I can not provide the 41pages report here.
Starting from a photo:
This is a photo I took casually, a complete industrial chain, right? From left to right, it involves commodity exchanges, local brokers, growers(tenants), media, investors, laborers, and me (importers and exporters) who are taking pictures.
The simple process should be as follows: laborer-- dealer --domestic and foreign demand side (supply- service- demand)
after development: laborer --- land contracted grower (management and capital) -- dealer (service) + media (information) + investor (speculation) -- domestic and foreign demand side
Each party needs more information to make decisions, so a consulting company which mainly serves dealers and investors (Speculators) has emerged, which undertakes part of the functions of the media at the same time in China.
Chinese garlic market spontaneously invented three of the four derivatives of futures market: forward, option and futures. The output value of a single product exceeds 20 billion yuan, which naturally attracts the attention of the exchanges.
Conclusion: the future business environment in China:
1. The demand for information consultation will increase significantly;
2. The financial industry will become more and more developed;
3. The future company should be a group alliance with professional strength in all aspects;
4. Risk aversion can only miss opportunities; mastering information, operating knowledge and managing risk are the core competitiveness of future business entities.